Geopolitical Shocks, Aviation Fuel Volatility, And Tourism Policy Resilience: Evidence From Indonesia's Vulnerability to Global Energy Disruption

Abstrak

Recurrent geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly threats to the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent energy corridors, generates oil price volatility that propagates into the aviation sector through aviation turbine fuel (avtur/jet fuel) price spikes. Indonesia, as an archipelagic state with structural dependence on air connectivity for both domestic and international tourist flows, faces systematic vulnerability that has not been adequately reflected in national tourism policy frameworks. This article analyzes the gap between existing policy response capacity and the resilience demands facing the tourism sector from geopolitically driven energy shocks. Drawing on systematic literature review and policy document analysis, the study operationalizes Kingdon's Multiple Streams Framework to map agenda-setting dynamics and the Beland-Howlett Policy Resilience Framework to assess policy capacity across absorptive, adaptive, and transformative dimensions. Findings reveal that Indonesian tourism policy is reactively configured toward endogenous crises while remaining systematically absent in anticipating geopolitical-energy transmission risks. A structural policy gap exposes the tourism sector to recurring vulnerability. The study recommends integrating an energy-price-based early warning system into tourism planning, institutionalizing aviation fuel hedging for strategic tourism routes, and accelerating transport diversification toward low-emission modes as medium-term adaptive responses.

Instabilitas geopolitik di kawasan Timur Tengah, khususnya ketegangan berulang di Selat Hormuz dan ancaman terhadap jalur energi global, menghasilkan volatilitas harga minyak yang merambat ke sektor penerbangan melalui lonjakan harga avtur. Indonesia, sebagai negara kepulauan dengan dependensi tinggi pada konektivitas udara, menghadapi risiko struktural yang belum tercermin dalam kerangka kebijakan pariwisata nasional. Artikel ini menganalisis kesenjangan antara kapasitas respons kebijakan yang ada dengan tuntutan resiliensi sektor pariwisata akibat guncangan energi berlatar geopolitik, menggunakan Multiple Streams Framework Kingdon dan Policy Resilience Framework Beland-Howlett. Temuan menunjukkan absensi sistematis risiko transmisi geopolitik-energi dari agenda kebijakan pariwisata Indonesia. Penelitian ini merekomendasikan integrasi early warning system berbasis harga energi, hedging avtur untuk rute wisata strategis, serta diversifikasi transportasi wisata sebagai respons adaptif jangka menengah